Week of November 29, 2021 in Review
There were some mixed messages regarding November job creations while home prices continued to rise in October. Plus, the new Omicron COVID variant and Fed chatter regarding inflation led to volatility in the markets.
GREAT NEWS FOR OUR FHA HOME BUYERS
The Federal Housing Agency (FHA) has just increased the amount of money that can be borrowed through its mortgage programs by more than $64k in most areas. In high-cost locations, the increase is even greater. New limits will take effect in 2022.
2022 HOME LOAN LIMIT INCREASE
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) just raised their conforming loan limit for 2022 by 18% to a maximum amount of $647,200 with high-cost areas being $970,800.
Inflations Impact on Mortgage Bonds and Rates
A full serving of news on inflation, housing, and the economy was reported ahead of Thanksgiving, with plenty of headlines for the markets to feast on.
Housing Units Planned But Not Started
The high demand for homes around the country has helped homebuilders remain confident, despite ongoing supply, labor, and lot shortages. Meanwhile, rents continue to rise.
Current Inflation Matters for Mortgage Bonds and the Home Loan Rates
Fall has ushered in cooler temperatures and hotter inflation, which is having an impact on households around the country and confidence among small business owners.
Zillow Stops Home Buying Business Drops 25%
Zillow mentioned this week they will be exiting buying and flips of homes, (started in December 2019) eliminating 25% of its workforce.
Headlines on Job Creation, Home Price, & The Fed’s Taper
The first week of November was filled with headlines on job creations, home price appreciation, and the Fed’s taper announcement. Economists were anticipating 450,000 job creations in October, but job growth beat expectations last month per the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which reported 531,000 new jobs.
What Does the Data Really Mean?
Sales of new homes surged in September, rising 14% from August at an 800,000 annualized pace. This was stronger than expectations and the highest reading since March. However, on an annual basis, sales were 18% lower when compared to September of last year – but there is more to this story as noted below. Meanwhile, Pending Home Sales, which measure signed contracts on existing homes, fell 2.3% in September after an 8% gain in August.
Sales of Existing Homes Rebound in September
Demand for homes and builder confidence remains strong, despite low inventory and ongoing supply chain issues. Initial Jobless Claims hit another important milestone, while the Fed revised an important forecast. Builder confidence rose at the highest monthly pace since last November, per the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index.
MBS Roadsigns 10-18-21
After the markets were closed Monday for Columbus Day, inflation data, employment news and the Fed minutes made plenty of headlines. Consumer inflation rose by 0.4% in September, in line with expectations, per the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The year-over-year reading increased from 5.3% to 5.4%. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.2%, which was in line with expectations. On a year-over-year basis, Core CPI remained at 4%.
MBS Road Signs 10-4-21
The last week of September was jam-packed with news on housing, inflation, and jobless claims.
The Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed that prices rose 1.6% from June to July and they were up a record 20% annually. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), which measures home price appreciation on single-family homes with conforming loan amounts, also showed strong appreciation. Home prices rose 1.4% from June to July and 19% year over year.